Nominal Dichotomy?
Decades back, I remember my uncle, in his wheelchair, reminded me, almost scolding, that merely repeating something doesn't turn it true. Perhaps what I related to him was indeed incredulous..... But those were, and these are, nominal times! Some things repeat .... Like politics, like nominal coalition pressures, like inflation, and ......the sliding FX! And they are, Nominally True - de facto!
Back in 70s, inflation was in the double digits in the aftermath of the oil crisis, our population half what it is today, and the Dollar exchanged for 8 Rupees, perhaps less. So what went wrong and who got away.... and how? It turns out Democracy is blind to the nature of economic system adopted under it - whether the trade-oriented, per-capita Nominal paradigm, or the infrastructure-focused Real paradigm. The many governments that we elected found the 'desi'-hybrid version of the per-capita oriented, nominal paradigm - based on inflation-managed capitalism, FX-massaged trade (and exploitive political pyramids), quite convenient to their designs. Designs by the Privates, involving the Privates, and for the Privates ! Supported by the dumb millions who stamped their votes on sickles, pens, balances, almost anything short of the Rupee the Privates put away their largesse from public granary in.
I wouldn't be amiss to suggest that the Privates - the Landed, Business-owners, and Politicians, who, leveraging a vantage seat on the long end of the Inflation-FX balance, hedge and trade-off Wealth against Lifestyle. Should the economy inflate, it inflates with PQ & LQ that the Wealthy partake off aplenty, thanks to their Dollar-denominated wealth repository. The Public on the other end, either suffers the brunt of inflation, or, must sacrifice savings they put away fearing a Privates Bear-run on the markets. This war between the Privates and the Public exacerbates under the Nominal paradigm that, in its pursuit of faster GDP growth, let's both inflation and the FX loose - albeit post some fancy monetary massaging. Dare challenge me? Instead, take the test of factual history.
The liberalization of the early 90s was, arguably, also a switch to the Nominal. And what has it brought upon us... beyond foreign investment, if double-edged? Cycles of high and low inflation that have, nonetheless, raised consumer prices many times over, and turned essentials into luxuries. Inflation, not a by product of inefficient growth, but a long inter-jurisdictional strategy to siphon short, politically-controlled policy-froth into long butter abroad -a strategy that across parties and governments has reduced the nation's currency to a tenth of what it was under the Real. True, the nation is many times larger in population, output and employment. But is it all sustainable? I fear not. The Nominal paradigm has engendered a society that, in various ways, pampers to the Privates and their Cause. What be they? Ever-enlarging profits, and ever-enlarging inequity - and not merely economic. Political power to.... just about engage in any activity, illegal, unethical or immoral? Would you live to tell? Subsidise the masses with pennies to lay claim to their constituency-millions, ship them abroad, and thus rape their future-Commons? I fear so. Intimidate believers in the Real society and suppress dissent with RTI hit-n-runs, 'pavement runovers' and 'broadsides'? I read so. Turn the nation into a sea of treacherous humanity who will sink the world to keep themselves afloat? 'They' fear so. Collude across jurisdictions to rig the stock market? Dr. Rajan knows so! Keep the ever-growing swarm of labor in control by introducing automation and Robot? We know so. Robots, that when combined with grand-sized automation, further exacerbate the Open Cycle and worsen the global clime? I fear so. Keep up the competitiveness of our economy and buy excuses for our environmental excesses by forcing involuntary participation of the masses in various less-than-moral rings and circles? A survey would reveal so. So on, and so forth. And when all the milk from the per-capita cow has run dry, and the Dollar hardened so much, your daughter must await a nominal bull to pay for a test of English, who but the Privates enjoy the Bear cake merely by switching their macro hedges? Flip! Let's go Real. Understand?
Itsn't the turn of the 21st century, we are 15 years into it. Can we, as a nation of the middle class and the enlarging poor, afford to continue with a nominal paradigm that feeds to exploit, requires us to ever lean to the Right, involves the nation in an Armaments race with nuclear neighbors, forces the lay public to share in the environmental wrongs committed to life on planet, and which debases all heritage, culture and traditions unless they turn Android 5-compliant? As my uncle would perhaps also admonish, beware those who engage in demagoguery -- me included. So, don't take my word for it. Open your eyes and ears to the undercurrents of our society and events in the larger global economy. Draw your own conclusions. And act on them.
Back in 70s, inflation was in the double digits in the aftermath of the oil crisis, our population half what it is today, and the Dollar exchanged for 8 Rupees, perhaps less. So what went wrong and who got away.... and how? It turns out Democracy is blind to the nature of economic system adopted under it - whether the trade-oriented, per-capita Nominal paradigm, or the infrastructure-focused Real paradigm. The many governments that we elected found the 'desi'-hybrid version of the per-capita oriented, nominal paradigm - based on inflation-managed capitalism, FX-massaged trade (and exploitive political pyramids), quite convenient to their designs. Designs by the Privates, involving the Privates, and for the Privates ! Supported by the dumb millions who stamped their votes on sickles, pens, balances, almost anything short of the Rupee the Privates put away their largesse from public granary in.
I wouldn't be amiss to suggest that the Privates - the Landed, Business-owners, and Politicians, who, leveraging a vantage seat on the long end of the Inflation-FX balance, hedge and trade-off Wealth against Lifestyle. Should the economy inflate, it inflates with PQ & LQ that the Wealthy partake off aplenty, thanks to their Dollar-denominated wealth repository. The Public on the other end, either suffers the brunt of inflation, or, must sacrifice savings they put away fearing a Privates Bear-run on the markets. This war between the Privates and the Public exacerbates under the Nominal paradigm that, in its pursuit of faster GDP growth, let's both inflation and the FX loose - albeit post some fancy monetary massaging. Dare challenge me? Instead, take the test of factual history.
The liberalization of the early 90s was, arguably, also a switch to the Nominal. And what has it brought upon us... beyond foreign investment, if double-edged? Cycles of high and low inflation that have, nonetheless, raised consumer prices many times over, and turned essentials into luxuries. Inflation, not a by product of inefficient growth, but a long inter-jurisdictional strategy to siphon short, politically-controlled policy-froth into long butter abroad -a strategy that across parties and governments has reduced the nation's currency to a tenth of what it was under the Real. True, the nation is many times larger in population, output and employment. But is it all sustainable? I fear not. The Nominal paradigm has engendered a society that, in various ways, pampers to the Privates and their Cause. What be they? Ever-enlarging profits, and ever-enlarging inequity - and not merely economic. Political power to.... just about engage in any activity, illegal, unethical or immoral? Would you live to tell? Subsidise the masses with pennies to lay claim to their constituency-millions, ship them abroad, and thus rape their future-Commons? I fear so. Intimidate believers in the Real society and suppress dissent with RTI hit-n-runs, 'pavement runovers' and 'broadsides'? I read so. Turn the nation into a sea of treacherous humanity who will sink the world to keep themselves afloat? 'They' fear so. Collude across jurisdictions to rig the stock market? Dr. Rajan knows so! Keep the ever-growing swarm of labor in control by introducing automation and Robot? We know so. Robots, that when combined with grand-sized automation, further exacerbate the Open Cycle and worsen the global clime? I fear so. Keep up the competitiveness of our economy and buy excuses for our environmental excesses by forcing involuntary participation of the masses in various less-than-moral rings and circles? A survey would reveal so. So on, and so forth. And when all the milk from the per-capita cow has run dry, and the Dollar hardened so much, your daughter must await a nominal bull to pay for a test of English, who but the Privates enjoy the Bear cake merely by switching their macro hedges? Flip! Let's go Real. Understand?
Itsn't the turn of the 21st century, we are 15 years into it. Can we, as a nation of the middle class and the enlarging poor, afford to continue with a nominal paradigm that feeds to exploit, requires us to ever lean to the Right, involves the nation in an Armaments race with nuclear neighbors, forces the lay public to share in the environmental wrongs committed to life on planet, and which debases all heritage, culture and traditions unless they turn Android 5-compliant? As my uncle would perhaps also admonish, beware those who engage in demagoguery -- me included. So, don't take my word for it. Open your eyes and ears to the undercurrents of our society and events in the larger global economy. Draw your own conclusions. And act on them.
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