Posts

Showing posts from October, 2007

IPOs, Lies and Videotape (Yes, Lies, All Lies!)

IPOs, Lies and Videotape (Yes, Lies, All Lies!) Ganga Prasad G. Rao http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar Ever so often, the media draws our attention to the zooming stock markets and what the sky-high PE multiples portend for valuation and future course of the market. In developed economies, the stock market is so large and so mature, that practically no IPO, no matter what size, dents the market. The story is very different in emerging economies like China and India where large state-run enterprises, fed with government protection and subsidy, are privatised by offering them in IPOs to the stock market. The relative size of these IPOs in relation to the market capitalization, though small, is significant enough to induce market volatility as investors pull out of their existing holdings to subscribe. In developed nations, these decisions are unnecessary, even illegal. Entrepreneurs take their enterprise to the market at a time they judge convenient or optimal. That brings to the fore many ...

Auto Loans! Dime a Thousand Dollars!

Auto Loans! Dime a Thousand Dollars! Ganga Prasad G. Rao http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar 7 years after returning to India, I am still getting used to the way in which policies are set in this country. Recently, I read that the Honorable FM exhorted PSU banks to find ways to lower the interest rate on loans. Specifically, he sought lower interest rates to stimulate the auto sector growing at less than the 'target' rate. That got my old moth-balled brain whirring. Isn't that what the doctor ordered for our beleaguered transport sector? Apparently, what we need is not investment in good roads, road-widening and flyovers, more buses, an MRTS or a better traffic management, but more vehicles on the road. More vehicles for urban traffic that moves at a snail's pace negotiating congestion and snarls. More cars, more smoke-belching RAVs, more vans and more trucks on narrow roads getting narrower by the day. Wonder what motivated the FM's request. Does the Government's I...

Rate (C/G)ut the Earth!

Rate (C/G)ut the Earth! Ganga Prasad G. Rao http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar I am no macro-economist, at least not with the credentials of Greenspan, Bernanke or Dr. Reddy. But I do know that lower inter-bank interest rate set by the Fed cascades down as lower interest rates on home loans and credit card loans on one hand, and to easier credit for businesses on the other. A surprise decision to lower interest rate ultimately means more real disposable income in the hands of the working class and induces higher consumption which in turn spurs production and investment, not to mention a spurt in stock markets globally. Not surprisingly, the boost in consumer confidence and higher economic activity augurs well for the incumbent party that seeks to 'soft-launch' the economy in its campaign to retain power. So what could be wrong with this tried and tested strategy? Nothing, if one did not care beyond the boundaries of one's nation and this generation. But in today's global e...