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Showing posts from March, 2007

Softlanding an Economy

SOFTLANDING Ganga Prasad Rao http//myprofile.cos.com/gangar How often have we heard of 'softlanding' the economy? Of course, we all know what it means – to bring the economy to a sustainable rate of expansion by increasing the interest rate after a period of loose monetary policy. The risk, as perceived by policy makers, is that too much and/or too fast a rise in interest rate could crash the economy in to a recession. Indeed, Keynesian economists have made a profession of macro-economic intervention to raise growth and then seek to softland it when the economy grows unsustainably. But that's not my point. My argument concerns the nation's economy as a whole. Every emerging economy wishes to grow and grow fast. Yet, perennial growth at more than a couple percent points is 'demanding' in every sense of the word. Do we put our industry on a growth path that exhausts natural resources, inflates prices and exacerbates a million social and environmental externalities

Global Thinning is a Good Global Warming Policy

Global Thinning is a Good Global Warming Policy Ganga Prasad G. Rao In the good ol' days as an Economist at API, despite all the gassing in my office (apparently, something to do with 'spy key', 'gas key' or 'criminal key'?), I made a list of ideas to impress the twelfth floor into sponsoring my green card (I should have known better!). Any way, one of those ideas was that population control was likely a very effective global warming policy. Come to think of it, population growth is an exponential process. Add to it the human desire to live it up, and what you have it is a 'double exponential' growth of demand for various goods and services, each requiring extraction of raw materials, processing, packaging and transportation, not to mention collection and disposal of waste post-consumption. The GHG emissions from these activities can only add to the existing inventory. And, since we are not waiting for glaciers to show up at our doors (if you know wh

‘Coz it Benefits me Analysis !

‘Coz it Benefits me Analysis ! Ganga Prasad Rao For decades, cost-benefit analysis (CBA), or benefit-cost analysis (depending on your perspective!) has ruled the roost among policy makers who use and advocate it for evaluating the economic attractiveness of policy alternatives and options. The principle is simple: evaluate all incremental economic costs and all incremental economic benefits of alternatives over the baseline or status quo and choose the one that yields the highest incremental net benefits. In reality however, the application of CBA has been clouded by a myriad issues. These concern the definition of costs, measurement of benefits, discount rates, social preferences, compensation to ‘losers’ and so on. All impact studies recognize costs and benefits spread across space and time, first round and second round effects, as well as distributional impacts. Yet, not many studies examine the performance of CBA under various administrative, constitutional, political and electoral

Poverty, Population, Politics and the Environment:The Unholy Tangle

Poverty, Population, Politics and the Environment:The Unholy Tangle Ganga Prasad G. Rao Ever wondered why our country has no place for the 'clean and green' parties? Why do political parties assiduously avoid anything that could remotely be termed 'green'? Because being ‘green’ signifies a rich economy and the poor masses will not vote for a party seen as anti-poor. Every rupee spent on pollution control and cleanliness is, as they rightly, self-deceptively or wrongly perceive, taken off the bowls of the poor. (So say the communists; I wonder if the 'right' is behind them. Strange bedmates indeed! Why, that's a conspiracy you'd never suspect!). Little wonder that being green is a stigma no political party would risk! But the tragedy does not stop there. In our country, we care for the poor. We subsidize their education, their health, their food, their electricity and their transportation. Nothing wrong with that. They deserve help in an opportunistic soc

Democracy, Elections and Voting

Hello, 22nd Century, This is India, Hello, ....., Hello? Ganga Prasad G. Rao Yes, it's me again! And yes, it is our democracy again! WWAAI I TT!, I have a question before you hit 'delete'. When you vote, why and whom do you vote for? For one candidate over his challengers? For one party against other parties in the fray? For democracy against anarchy? Out of a feeling of duty and national pride? To express your appreciation for a certain candidate, party or to justify the holiday the government declares? A vote under obligation or duress for being the recipient of past favors? Or some combination that you don't have the time for, the will to or the conscience to figure out? Does it even matter, you ask? Indeed. It matters when you vote for the candidate but not for the party, or the other way around. It matters whether you vote to express your right, your opinion or your appreciation for or obligation to a certain candidate. And it matters if you abstain because you do

Rites To Our Constitutional Rights?

Rites To Our Constitutional Rights? Ganga Prasad G. Rao http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar Call it human nature, but we generally accept the system in which we grow. That includes our religion, our surroundings and its racial mix, our family, our institutions, political system and the constitution. Not surprisingly therefore, we Indians broadly agree with our constitution, with its basic tenets and the rights it bestows upon us. Our socialist legacy has however brought up generations of citizens who have come to expect from the government many constitutional rights that one should fight for a life, if not a war as our freedom fighters did. These 'wants' should be viewed in the broader perspective of the struggle for constitutional rights in developed countries – albeit of a different nature. Thus, while Indian political and social groups seek support for proclamation of the right to livelihood, right to education, right to equality in outcome (as opposed to equal opportunity), rig